The Meadowlands will play host to an AFC East clash this Sunday, with the AFC-leading Bills (5-1) traveling to MetLife Stadium to face the Jets (5-3). Buffalo has been as good as expected this season, remaining the top team on Sports Interaction’s Super Bowl odds boards (+150). The Jets have been better than advertised, highlighted by big wins over the Packers, Dolphins, Broncos, and Browns. Today we will preview this divisional tilt, give you everything you need to know from a betting angle, and showcase one important betting trend that will help you make some cash.
What can’t Josh Allen do on the football field? The preseason favorite to win MVP continues to lead the pack at -141, and for good reason. The fifth-year Wyoming product not only has Buffalo atop the AFC, he also leads the NFL with 314 passing yards per game. He ranks second in TD passes (19), behind only Patrick Mahomes (20), and owns the fourth-best QB rating (105.9). He peppers the ball all over the field when his talented receiving corps get open, and sprints for first downs when his pass-catchers see heavy coverage. He’s practically unstoppable.
As for the Jets, we have seen plenty of grit from Robert Saleh’s squad. But old familiar foe Bill Belichick and his Patriots reared their ugly head in Week 8, stifling New York’s four-game winning streak with a 22-17 win. Second-year QB Zach Wilson threw for 355 yards, but his three interceptions proved too costly. Gang Green surely misses stud rookie back Breece Hall, who had emerged as a Rookie of the Year candidate between Weeks 4 and 7 before tearing his ACL and meniscus.
Let’s get to the betting odds for this one, then discuss the one big stat trend you should consider, and ultimately make our prediction for this pivotal AFC East showdown.
WEEK 9 NFL PICKS: Against the Spread | Straight up
Bills at Jets odds for NFL Week 9
Betting odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
- Spread: Bills -11 (-110) | Jets +11 (-110)
- Over/Under: O 46 (-110) | U 46 (-110)
- Moneyline: Bills -524 | Jets +419
Bills at Jets: One stat to know when making your pick
6-2. That’s the Bills’ record against the Jets since the Josh Allen era began in his 2018 rookie season. Even more intriguing, Buffalo is 5-3 against the spread in that span. And since the start of his breakout 2020 campaign, Allen is 4-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS versus Gang Green.
Buffalo’s average spread over those past four games: nearly -11.5. Simply put, Allen and head coach Sean McDermott have put a hurting on the Jets since they became a conference powerhouse.
Not surprisingly, the blueprint to defeating Allen is easier said than done. Two of three things need to be accomplished by the opposing defense: sack Allen at least three times, hold him to two or fewer TDs, and/or force at least one turnover.
When two of those three things happen, an upset is possible. That has been the case in six of Allen’s seven losses since 2021 (we’ll throw out the 14-10 Patriots win last season during a Polar Vortex, in which New England won with 19 passing yards).
Can the Jets handle that blueprint? Honestly, maybe. Saleh’s defense has improved mightily under him and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, and the addition of stud rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner has lit a fire under Gang Green’s secondary.
The Jets have surrendered the sixth-fewest total yards, and they rank in the top ten in fewest air yards and pass TDs allowed. They have recorded the fourth-most interceptions and tenth-most takeaways, and they’re quietly allowing the second-fewest net yards per rushing attempt.
Of course, we must play Devil’s Advocate and look at the QBs New York has faced this season. Among the Jets’ losses, they faced embattled Pats second-year QB Mac Jones, reigning AFC champs Joe Burrow and the Bengals, and former MVP Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Among its wins, New York has faced struggling first-year Bronco Russell Wilson, Dolphins Tua/Teddy-sub Skylar Thompson, a Steelers combo of veteran Mitch Trubisky and the NFL debut of Kenny Pickett, and Deshaun Watson fill-in Jacoby Brissett.
The one truly impressive win of New York’s five came in Week 6 at Green Bay. The Jets sacked four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers four times and held him to one TD in a 27-10 rout. But it was cold — about 48 degrees at kickoff, nearly 30 degrees chillier than this weekend’s projected temps in East Rutherford — and Hall lit up the box score with 116 ground yards and a score.
The Bills beat those same Packers 27-17 on Sunday Night Football over the weekend, but Allen made a few costly second-half mistakes that kept Rodgers at least hypothetically in the game. Expect Allen, McDermott, and Buffalo offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey to correct those issues and tighten things up this weekend in a pivotal AFC East matchup.
Without Hall in the backfield, Wilson will have trouble evading Von Miller and this vaunted Bills pass-rush often enough to keep up with Allen. And Sauce Gardner can’t cover stud Buffalo wideouts Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis at the same time — both receivers are better than any pass-catcher on the Patriots or Packers. Thus, the trend of Allen owning the Jets seems destined to continue.
MORE WEEK 9 NFL: Odds, spreads
Bills at Jets: Three other trends to know
— The Bills have surrendered just 284.5 total yards per away game this season, the third-fewest in the NFL.
— New York has gone 1-3 against the spread at home. Buffalo is 2-1-1 ATS in away games.
— The Jets have averaged 132 rushing yards in their five victories, and only 70 ground yards in their three losses. Buffalo has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game (95.0).
Bills at Jets: Prediction
The Bills never seem satisfied. Even when they were pulverizing the Packers in primetime (alliteration!), they were keeping their foot on the gas in the second half. However, two costly Allen interceptions — as well as a solid rushing effort by Packers lead back Aaron Jones — kept Buffalo from running away with a win by three or four touchdowns.
This week will be a much different test for the Bills, as Wilson is a significantly more flawed QB than ARodg behind a much worse offensive line than the Packers. Without the stud rookie Hall keeping some pressure off their second-year QB, the Jets could be in for a long Sunday afternoon.
PREDICTION: Bills 33, Jets 17. Buffalo claims its third blowout victory of the season, covering the spread (-11) and hitting the OVER.
