The World Series begins Friday night in somewhat of a David-versus-Goliath matchup.
The Houston Astros won 106 games, earned their league’s No. 1 seed, and had the shortest odds of any AL team to make it to the big dance.
The Philadelphia Phillies won 87 contests, finished third in their division and sixth in their league, and entered every playoff series as an underdog.
Can Philadelphia’s magical run continue, or will it finish without a happy ending? We’ll find out very soon.
Phillies (+140) @ Astros (-165)
I think the Astros are the best team in baseball. They’ll prevail in this series and, perhaps, Game 1.
The Phillies should be able to hang around, though, at least through the first half of Friday’s contest.
Aaron Nola is one of the sport’s most underrated stars and has largely pitched very well over the last couple of months.
Dating back to the beginning of September, Nola has conceded one run or fewer in six of his last nine starts, including five shutouts.
Those blanks didn’t just come against run-of-the-mill teams. He shut out the Atlanta Braves twice, the St. Louis Cardinals, and, yes, the Astros.
Houston nukes fastballs, but Nola only throws them 33% of the time. He relies heavily on the sinker, changeup, and curveball, which the Astros aren’t nearly as productive against. He should be able to mix it up and keep Houston on its toes early on.
While Justin Verlander very much remains an elite pitcher, he throws fastballs – which the Phillies hit very well – more than 50% of the time.
Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto, and Alec Bohm all posted wOBAs above .380 – and run values of at least +10 – against four-seamers this season.
Harper, Hoskins, and especially Realmuto also hit sliders very well. That’s Verlander’s No. 2 pitch – he uses it far more than his third – so he doesn’t really have a cheat code to mow down the heart of Philadelphia’s order.
I think the big guns will be able to help the Phillies plate a run or two in the first few innings of this game. If that’s the case, Nola will have enough support to get Philadelphia through five winning or tied.
Bet: Phillies F5 +0.5 (-110)
Bryce Harper over 1.5 bases (+110)
Harper has been almost shockingly consistent during this postseason run. He’s recorded at least one hit in 10 straight games, piling up 18 over that span.
Win or lose, I expect him to continue making noise Friday. As previously mentioned, he excels against each of Verlander’s primary pitches.
Harper posted a .463 wOBA, .637 SLG%, and 54.2% hard-hit rate against four-seamers during the regular season.
Although he wasn’t as good against sliders, he was still very effective. Harper recorded a .380 wOBA, .500 SLG%, and a team-leading run value of +2.5 per 100 pitches seen when facing that pitch.
Verlander’s ability to locate his pitches precisely makes him very difficult to hit against, but Harper is the hottest bat in the series. He’s also perhaps the best equipped to enjoy some success against Verlander.
With Harper being a doubles machine, it’d likely only take one good swing to get him over 1.5 bases.
Bet: Over 1.5 bases (+110)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
