The Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies split the opening two games of the series, which means the Phillies have home-field advantage the rest of the way.
Can they make the most of it, or will the Astros return the favor by stealing the first game in the opposing team’s ballpark? Let’s dive into it.
Astros (-135) @ Phillies (+115)
Pitching plays such a large role in playoff baseball, and the Astros appear to have the edge with Lance McCullers Jr.
Noah Syndergaard has only pitched 24 innings since the beginning of September, and they haven’t gone that well. Syndergaard conceded 10 runs, posted a 4.15 FIP, and struggled mightily to put opposing batters away.
His strikeout rate was just 13.1% during that stretch, which is barely over half of the league average. I don’t see that improving much against an Astros team that’s as disciplined as any in baseball.
Despite all the power the Astros possess – they ranked eighth in homers versus righties this season – they’re remarkably good at avoiding strikeouts. Only two teams struck out less against right-handed pitching during the regular season.
That means a lot of balls are going to be put in play, which is dangerous for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, the Astros are loaded with stars at the plate. If they’re consistently making decent contact, they’ll likely do some damage.
Philadelphia is also not the best defensively. The Phillies ranked 25th during the regular season in defensive runs saved (-33), which is a problem with Syndergaard on the mound. Long gone are the days when he’d simply blow balls past any batter he was up against.
On the other side, McCullers has given up nine runs in more than 31 innings pitched since the beginning of September. He’s also posted a rock-solid 3.14 FIP during that time and has struck out a hair less than 29% of the batters he faced.
Perhaps most importantly, he’s allowed hard contact only 20.3% of the time. The Phillies have a lot of extra-base power in their lineup, so having an arm that limits hard-hit contact is definitely a huge plus.
I like the Astros to grind out a win and earn their first lead of the series.
Bet: Astros (-135)
Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 bases (+110)
Yordan Alvarez hasn’t been ripping it up at the plate of late, especially compared to his usual standards. Alvarez has only recorded four hits over the last seven games and has failed to generate one on four different occasions.
You can only keep a talent like Alvarez off the basepaths for so long, though. This is a nice spot for him to get back on track.
Syndergaard has a five-pitch mix, but his most frequently used pitches are sinkers and sliders. Alvarez excels against both.
The Houston slugger posted a .415 xwOBA and 63.8% hard-hit rate against sinkers this season, both of which comfortably lead the Astros.
Alvarez also led the way in xwOBA (.454) and hard-hit rate (52.5%) versus sliders while being worth a run value of +11.
Of the five pitches Syndergaard throws, the curveball is the only one Alvarez doesn’t mash against. However, that’s Thor’s least frequently used pitch (10.9%).
This is a nice matchup for Alvarez to get back on track.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
