After back-to-back wins in Philadelphia, the Astros are returning home with a chance to put the Phillies away and claim their second World Series in six years.
Can they do it Saturday night, or will it come down to a do-or-die game on Sunday?
Let’s dig in.
Phillies (+125) @ Astros (-145)
Houston has been downright dominant this postseason, winning 10 of 12 games played to date. I like their chances of making it 11 in 13.
Taking the mound for the Astros will be a red-hot Framber Valdez, who has conceded two runs or fewer in 11 of his last 13 starts and allowed only three runs over three starts in this year’s playoffs.
Valdez caused the Phillies a world of problems in his previous start before picking up a win. Of the 88 pitches he tossed, 74 were sinkers or curveballs – two pitches the Phillies struggle against mightily.
Only two of their batters – Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins – posted run values above +2 against sinkers during the regular season. It just so happens that those two players, like most on the roster, can’t hit curveballs. Both owned sub-.200 expected batting averages and xwOBAs of .300 or lower.
The Astros are as analytically inclined as anybody. They clearly know the best way to attack the Phillies’ batters, and Valdez just happens to have the pitches in his arsenal to do so better than most.
Valdez sat down nine last time out while allowing only one run and three hard-hit balls in play, and Philly had no answer for him.
As good as Zack Wheeler is, his primary pitch is a four-seam fastball, and the Astros absolutely mash against it. That’s no doubt part of the reason they got to Wheeler last time out, generating nine baserunners and four runs over just five innings.
The Phillies deserve a lot of credit for their magical run to the big dance, but I think it ends Saturday.
Bet: Astros (-145)
Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 total bases (exp. odds: +110)
Alvarez has let us down a couple times lately, but this is a nice spot for him to finish the year on a high note.
Wheeler combines to throw fastballs and sliders nearly 70% of the time, and Alvarez excels against both.
During the regular season, Alvarez posted a .502 wOBA, a .757 SLG%, and a hard-hit rate of almost 72% against the four-seam fastball. His run value against the pitch was a whopping +22.
Alvarez’s numbers weren’t as good versus the slider, but he still dominated against that pitch. He posted a .454 xwOBA and .718 xSLG% while leading Houston in hard-hit rate.
Even if Wheeler uses his full arsenal of pitches, Alvarez is as well-rounded as anybody and should be able to get ahold of something.
With the sport’s biggest prize at stake, look for the Astros superstar to come through with a big game.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
